China and the Struggle for African Sovereignty in the Emerging World Order

African sovereignty in a changing world order

Of all the geopolitical shifts in the past 20 years, perhaps none has raised more concerns in Western foreign policy circles than the strengthening of relations between the People’s Republic of China and African sovereign states. The triad of warnings in Western advisories and editorials points to Beijing’s pursuit of loans for infrastructure projects as a debt trap, argues that Chinese non-interference diplomacy strengthens African dictators, and portrays Chinese commercial interests as the ‘re-colonisation’ of the continent.

Drawing on classical realism and the history of international political economy, this critique is rife with contradictions. For five hundred years, the major Western powers that colonised and subjugated Africa, having systematically and forcibly destroyed Africa’s productive capacities, now deem themselves the protectors of African sovereignty.

Predatory loans are predatory, irrespective of who diagnoses them. The West's critique, especially in the U.S., becomes intellectually bankrupt when it treats Chinese interests in Africa as an existential threat while systematically ignoring the actions of Western bondholders, the terms of international trade, capital outflows, and foreign military bases. Above all, framing African states as victims of Chinese ‘traps’ strips them of agency and, especially, denies the foresight of many African leaders. Depicting African leadership as passive pawns of external powers is a continuation of the Western arrogance that, in the first place, justified colonialism and slavery as “civilising missions” and the “White Man’s Burden”, now camouflaged in new forms.

This briefing examines the material basis of the contemporary world system to expose the hypocrisy of selective moral judgment. Drawing on Eric Williams (Capitalism and Slavery), C.L.R. James (The Black Jacobins) and Karl Marx (Capital), this study shows how the 'free' market economy was financed by the transatlantic slave trade, which spanned over three hundred years and funded the Industrial Revolution in Europe. The 1884-1885 Berlin Conference cemented Europe’s control of Africa.

While modern Western historiography argues that overseas conquest and chattel slavery were historically necessary for the emergence of industrial capitalism, this briefing compares the Ming Dynasty’s (1405-1433) maritime expeditions. Between 1405 and 1433, the Ming state organised more than 27,000 sailors into 300-vessel fleets, which far exceeded the European fleets of the following centuries. During the Ming maritime expeditions, the state consolidated China’s Heartland and did not enslave foreign populations to establish extractive colonies along the African coast. Today, China has achieved the highest standards of industrial and technological modernisation without enslaving foreign populations or engaging in overseas conquest.

The Debt Narrative

Western perceptions of China’s ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ don’t align with verifiable data;

Creditor Matrix: Empirical debt registries such as the World Bank’s International Debt Report 2024 and the Boston University Chinese Loans to Africa Database, show that Chinese loans constitute 12-15% of sub-Saharan Africa’s External Public Debt. The rest, approximately 70-80%, comprises of private (Eurobonds) and Multilateral Development Bonds from the West. The remaining bonds, i.e. 7.5-11.5% Commercial Coupon Bonds, carry rigid refinancing terms. The Western Bondholders have firmly refused to grant Debt Relief under the G20’s Common Framework.

Fixed Capital vs. Consumption Overhead: Ultimately the difference comes down to where the capital is directed. Traditionally the West has channeled a very thin ‘fixed’ capital base consisting of policy advice, governance and related reforms, and the rest of the capital flows is directed to consumption. Chinese financing, on the other hand, has been directed to the productive sector, and the real economy. Chinese banks between 2000 and 2023, for example, financed 21 Gigawatts of power projects in Africa and accounts for about 8% of Africa’s electricity generation capacity.

The Industrial Transition

Chinese firms have moved from construction contracting to manufacturing in the last ten years. They are located in Uganda’s Mbale and Kapeeka Industrial Parks, Nigeria’s Lekki Free Zone and Ethiopia’s Eastern Industrial Zone, among other places, where they manufacture steel, cement, pharmaceuticals and electronics. Several independent studies have shown that 80-95% of the workers in these factories are Africans, and the experience is oriented towards technical and engineering vocations, thus positively powering the skills development of the Continent.

Reliance on Chinese companies will not be the final stage of African liberation, but an intermediate strategic step towards ultimate liberation.

As long as African countries import finished products and continuously rely on China and European countries to finance their import-based economies and service foreign debt by exporting raw materials and setting up foreign assembly enclaves, they will remain structurally and socially dependent. Therefore, African countries must use the changing international situation to develop an indigenous, productive national bourgeoisie that controls and operates industries for local capital formation.

This cannot happen with the fragmented micro-states based on the Westphalian model. These micro-states have little or no capacity for domestic political consolidation and strategic depth of defense. A small, isolated state of 10 or 40 million people will never have the internal market to be an equal partner to a Civilizational State of 1.4 billion people.

The East African Federation is the greatest historical development since 1550 BC, when Ahmose I overthrew the Hyksos and established the 18th dynasty of Egypt, ushering in a new age of prosperity and African power in the ancient world. More than 300 million people will be brought together, along with strategic interests such as the Indian Ocean, the Great Lakes, the Nile Valley, Lake Victoria, and other strategic resources. This will fundamentally change Africa’s position in the world. Africa will no longer have a new master. It will learn from a late-modern, industrialising state situated in a multi-polar world how to safely preserve its sovereignty, manoeuvre, and build the institutional scale to position itself as a Civilizational state.